COP31 Opens in Turkey With Electrification and Fossil Fuel Exit at Center

Negotiations for the annual United Nations climate conference, known as COP31, have begun in Antalya, Turkey. Country leaders will spend the next two weeks at the summit. The event takes place during the ninth month of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

The conflict has triggered a global energy crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and prices for oil and natural gas have spiked. These conditions have exposed the vulnerabilities of relying on fossil fuels. Kingsmill Bond, an analyst at the energy think tank Ember, notes that this crisis differs from previous shocks in the 1970s and 2022. He states that this is the first time a global energy shock has coincided with cheap solutions to address it.

Those solutions include solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. Many of these technologies are produced in China. They offer economic security and reduced emissions. Bond believes the economic case for these technologies will make it easier for countries to support them at the conference. He says there is much more opportunity for people to get behind change at COP.

Electrification is the central theme of this year's discussions. Bond explains that some participants are calling this the electrification COP. The conference is setting a target to increase the global electrification rate from about 23 percent today to 35 percent by 2035. This goal assumes countries will grow their electricity mix with cleaner renewable energy. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, says more green energy helps decarbonize better and faster.

Financial services firm Lazard reports that large solar and wind projects now provide more cost-competitive energy than natural gas and coal projects. Energy experts describe this trend as a reasonable assumption for the electrification goals. The shift reflects recent years of development in renewable energy infrastructure.

A roadmap to move away from fossil fuels is also a key topic. Many countries have argued that the U.N. process has not done enough to tackle burning fossil fuels, the single biggest driver of climate change. Producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have consistently opposed including fossil fuel language in final conference agreements. In April, more than 50 countries met to discuss phasing out oil, gas, and coal. Organizers described that meeting as a way to complement the U.N. process.

More than 25 of those nations are developing a legally binding treaty to advance a fossil fuel phase-out. Supporters of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative hope more countries will join their cause at COP31. The initiative aims to create a formal framework for reducing dependence on carbon-intensive fuels.

The United States is not sending a delegation to COP31. The State Department confirmed this in an email. The U.S. also did not send anyone to last year's conference in Brazil. The Trump administration has reversed previous climate actions, including phasing out subsidies for electric vehicles, solar, and wind. It has also reduced regulations for greenhouse gases and halted renewable energy projects.

Some democratic lawmakers are attending the conference. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island, is among them. Following the Democrats' midterm victory sweep, Whitehouse and other lawmakers plan to keep the focus on fossil fuels and a potential carbon pricing mechanism. Whitehouse says it cannot remain free for the fossil fuel industry to pollute if the world wants a pathway to climate safety.