Polls close across New Mexico at 9 p.m.

Polls close at 9 p.m. Mountain Time on Tuesday for voters in New Mexico, joining Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. By that hour, polls will have closed in more than 80% of the country. The first results from these states will drive the narrative on whether Democrats can flip enough seats to challenge Republican control of the U.S. Senate.

New Mexico does not have a competitive Senate race. However, the state contains competitive House contests that reporters and analysts are watching closely. The margin of victory in the Senate could indicate broader trends in voter behavior, even if the seat itself is not in play. In nearby states, the Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas are expected to be tight. Three of those states are usually Republican strongholds, yet polls show Democrats within striking distance.

The outcome in the Senate may depend on seven specific states with narrow margins. Two of those states use ranked choice voting, a system that often extends the counting process. Control of the U.S. House is less likely to hinge on a single seat, but the Senate majority could come down to one vote. If Democrats lose the open seat in North Carolina, their path to a majority becomes much harder. That race pits former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman.

Georgia and Florida are early focal points for the evening. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins in the Senate race. State Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing, a change from previous delays. In Florida, incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody is expected to defeat Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon. The Florida governor’s race between Republican Rep. Byron Donalds and Democratic candidate David Jolly favors the Republican, though the margin is smaller than in past cycles.

Analysts note that Florida’s redistricting maps will face their first test in this election. The Cook Political Report lists seven competitive House seats in the state, including two toss-ups. In Pennsylvania, which had the most competitive House races earlier in the cycle, the three previous toss-ups now lean toward Democrats. Democrats could secure a strong number of wins there if current trends hold.

In the 9 p.m. time block, Michigan’s gubernatorial race has drawn significant attention. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed battles Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. Republicans ran ads focusing on El-Sayed’s background, while El-Sayed leaned into his personal story. The race remains a toss-up. In the state’s governor’s contest, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Rep. John James.

Iowa offers Democrats a chance to pick up the governor’s office. State Auditor Rob Sand is favored in that race after running a campaign that emphasized non-partisan issues. In the open Senate race, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. The race is close enough to cause nervousness among Republican strategists. Additionally, two of Iowa’s three competitive congressional seats lean toward Democrats.

Texas presents a rare opportunity for Democrats in statewide races. State Rep. James Talarico challenges Republican nominee Ken Paxton for governor. Talarico may see an early lead from mail-in ballots and early voting data. However, Paxton is expected to gain ground as county totals come in. In the Senate, the race is less competitive, but the state’s shift in voter sentiment is being watched as a barometer for national economic frustrations.

Counting will continue well past midnight. Montana, Nevada, and Utah close polls at 10 p.m. Mountain Time. California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington close at 11 p.m. Pacific Time. The final results may not be known for days or even weeks, particularly in states with ranked choice voting or high volumes of mail-in ballots. Voters in Bernalillo County will see early numbers from New Mexico’s congressional districts as the state completes its count.