El Niño drives record rainfall into Bernalillo County

Flash floods forced evacuations across northern New Mexico on Sunday as a powerful El Niño weather system intensified storms in the region. Central Arizona experienced similar flooding, while a ski town in Colorado prepared for its main river to reach catastrophic levels. These events follow a wet storm last week that caused days of flooding in southwestern states.

Meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections described the current climate phenomenon as a super duper El Niño. He noted that while extreme versions have occurred in the past, this specific iteration is particularly intense. The natural warming cycle is leaking moisture into the air, fueling passing storms. Experts say the impacts are expected to continue for several more months.

Former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist Ryan Maue calculated that more than 20 trillion gallons of water have fallen on the Four Corners states and Nevada in the past two weeks. The desert landscape in New Mexico struggles to absorb this volume of water, which increases the risk of flash flooding. Scientists attribute the severity to the El Niño adding moisture to the air and shifting global wind patterns toward the Southwest.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources said the region is seeing precipitation to a degree it has not experienced before. The warmer ocean waters associated with El Niño are creating ideal conditions for heavy downpours. However, the world’s oceans are already hotter than they were a century ago due to human-caused climate change. Meteorologist Randy Cerveny of Arizona State University explained that these pre-existing warm temperatures make El Niño situations even more intense.

The weather pattern is affecting regions beyond North America. Swain reported record-breaking flooding in Peru and Ecuador. Parts of southeast Asia, including Indonesia, are experiencing drier than usual conditions. The El Niño event is expected to peak in December. At that point, it may more strongly harness jet streams to produce extreme storms across the western United States.

Park Williams with UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography stated via email that the dice are loaded for more heavy storms this winter and spring. The event can bring beneficial rainfall and moisture to drier areas, helping to fill reservoirs. Yet the storms and floods pose dangers to people and property. Experts recommend watching forecasts, planning ahead, and heeding evacuation warnings from local authorities.

Cerveny noted that the Pacific Ocean has not yet reached its peak heating. He confirmed that residents can expect to see more of these specific weather events. The combination of the extreme El Niño and a warming baseline climate suggests continued heavy precipitation. Local residents should remain prepared for the conditions through the winter and into the spring.