Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Role May Decide Israel's Next Government

Assessments within the Israeli political establishment indicate that Yitzhak Goldknopf and Naftali Bennett hold the deciding factors for forming the next government. With less than 24 hours remaining before voting begins, analysts are reviewing scenarios where Agudat Yisrael, a three-member Haredi faction, supports an opposition-led cabinet in exchange for specific budgetary agreements.

The potential cooperation is not new. Maariv reported in August that Goldknopf’s faction was exploring fresh political options, including working with Gadi Eisenkot. Those talks occurred amid internal friction within United Torah Judaism, specifically between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah, regarding the Haredi military draft and relations with Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition’s behavior, while Degel Hatorah showed a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando added to the uncertainty by expressing reservations about the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a structural obstacle. His voters are largely aligned with the Right. Political evaluations suggest that any visible support for a change bloc government could push his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk remains a central concern for the faction as it weighs its options.

Attention is also focused on former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government. This scenario is viewed as remote but plausible because Bennett has a background on the Right. It would require him to shift his base of support, a move complicated by the makeup of his current party.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential mover, given his history of joining a Netanyahu-led government as defense minister. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from making such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister.

For now, these remain political scenarios rather than finalized agreements. The question of which politician is willing to move their political base is expected to become a central issue in upcoming coalition negotiations.

Voters will cast their ballots in less than a day. The final seat count will determine whether Goldknopf’s three seats or Bennett’s potential alignment tips the balance of power in the Knesset.