Knesset Election: Returnees Arrive as Hotels Report Surge

The Knesset election is scheduled for Tuesday, and an estimated 70,000 Israelis living abroad have returned to the country or are expected to arrive before the polls open. This group represents a potential variable in a contest that may come down to narrow margins between political blocs. Because precise data on these voters does not exist, officials and analysts are relying on this broad estimate to gauge the scale of the influx.

The potential impact of these voters depends on the number required to win a legislative seat. In the 2022 elections, approximately 36,000 votes were necessary to secure one seat. With population growth and higher turnout anticipated for this cycle, the threshold is projected to rise to between 38,000 and 39,000 votes. If the election results are close, the collective voting power of these 70,000 returnees could determine the final seat distribution.

Predicting which parties these voters will support remains difficult. Some estimates suggest a lean toward the change bloc, but no reliable metrics exist for their specific political preferences. Even if 60% of these returnees voted for that bloc, the gain would likely amount to only one to one-and-a-half seats. The final outcome will depend on how these votes align with the broader national trend.

The influx of visitors is visible in the hospitality sector. Many returnees are combining family visits with Election Day, often staying with relatives or in apartments they own. However, a notable segment is booking hotel rooms. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy during election week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, noted that more Israelis are pairing their voting with short vacations.

Fattal Hotels also observed higher occupancy, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the vice president of marketing and sales, stated that bookings are up compared to the same period last year, citing the elections as a likely driver. To capitalize on this trend, the chain is offering discounts of up to 30% from October 25 to 29, along with an additional 10% discount for members of its loyalty program. Shalev indicated that bookings from abroad for these dates suggest many are coming specifically to vote.

Some of these returnees participated in the October Council rally at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, a resident of Miami for more than 50 years, said she traveled to vote and will return to the US in early November. She noted that while many Israelis in Miami and Los Angeles vote for the Right, she and others are breaking that pattern. Ofer, who traveled from New York, said his family flew in specifically for the vote and will return the day after the election.

Nurit, from the South Sharon area, attended the rally with her son-in-law and grandson, who arrived from Canada. Her grandson, who is 18, is casting his first ballot. Zehava, who also flew in from New York, stated she plans to vote for Likud and had planned her visit in advance. These individual accounts illustrate the diversity of political intentions among the returning diaspora.

Not all planned trips proceeded without issue. Some Israelis were stranded abroad after flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack. One young man noted that the cancellation caused flight prices to the Far East to rise. Conversely, some Israelis currently in the country will be overseas on Election Day. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, booked a vacation in Vietnam nearly a year ago, before the election date was confirmed. She said it breaks her heart to miss her first chance to vote in this cycle, noting that Israelis abroad cannot vote on Election Day.