Poll: Democrats favored to win House, but limits on gains appear

Democrats are favored to win control of the U.S. House, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Oct. 27. The survey found a 10-point Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot among registered voters and an 8-point edge among likely voters. That type of lead has historically translated into House seats changing hands: Democrats averaged a 7-point edge in 2018 and a 12-point edge in 2006, and won at least 30 seats each cycle.

The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20. The margin of error is 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters. This was the first survey in this cycle where Marist applied a likely voter screen. Among likely voters, President Trump's approval stood at 40%, with 59% disapproving. Among registered voters, 38% approved and 61% disapproved.

Cost of living remains the top concern. A third of respondents reported experiencing financial hardship in the past year, and 38% said their personal finances had gotten worse. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent in Arizona who leans toward Democrats and took part in the poll, said food and gas prices are a strain. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said. "They're just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don't like that."

Fifty-five percent of likely voters said they prioritize candidates with new ideas who will bring change. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, who participated in the survey, said he had not previously been an active midterm voter. "This year is different. This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power," Agan said. He is backing Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race.

Enthusiasm numbers show gaps within the Democratic coalition. Among Democratic likely voters, 71% described themselves as very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans. But only 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters and 56% of white women with college degrees said they were very enthusiastic. Among MAGA voters, the figure was 68%. Among independents, 48% reported high enthusiasm.

Three-quarters of likely voters said they are confident their state and local governments will run fair elections, including 88% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans and 75% of independents. Seventy percent of Republicans said their preferred candidate should accept results, though a quarter said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge them.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said immigrants should have a path to legal status if they meet certain requirements, while two-thirds of Republicans said they should be required to leave. On guns, 48% prioritized stricter laws and 46% prioritized protecting gun ownership rights. The survey also found 60% expect new data centers to have a negative effect on the country, and 66% oppose data center construction in their community.

The poll was conducted Oct. 19-20 among 1,289 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters.