Neither Netanyahu Nor Eisenkot Reaches 61 Seats After Israeli Vote

Neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot won the 61 seats needed to govern Israel after the vote concluded this week. The Knesset's 120 seats are split in a way that leaves no clear path for either leader to assemble a coalition.

Netanyahu's Likud party took the largest share of votes, but the right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that backed his last government together fall short of a majority. Eisenkot's center-right bloc holds more seats than Netanyahu's grouping, yet Eisenkot also lacks the votes to govern.

Eisenkot cannot reach 61 without support from Arab-led parties, which represent 21% of the population. Those parties are made up of Palestinian citizens of Israel. Eisenkot and his allies said during the campaign they would not form a government with them.

Eisenkot has said the Arab parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing alongside them. Some of those parties have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or to call it a terrorist organization.

In the coming days, Israel's president will meet with leaders of every party elected to parliament. Each will recommend a leader for the first chance to build a coalition. The president is not required to pick the candidate whose party won the most seats.

Whoever is chosen gets 28 days to line up support from at least 61 lawmakers. The president can add up to 14 more days. If that fails, another candidate can be given the task. The process can take weeks or months.

Based on the results, Eisenkot appears more likely than Netanyahu to receive the largest number of recommendations from lawmakers. Forming a government is another matter. Eisenkot has repeatedly said he will not serve in a government led by Netanyahu.

One option is a unity government that brings the two men together. Israeli and some U.S. Media reported that President Trump favors that outcome, though NPR has not confirmed those reports. Such a government would likely include moderate parties from Israel's center and right.

A second option is an Eisenkot government with Arab parties. Together they would hold more than 67 seats. Arab parties could also back Eisenkot from outside the government, though that would still break promises made during the campaign.

A third option is another election. Israel's president has urged leaders to avoid one, especially after turnout reached the highest level in decades. If no candidate can reach a majority, a new vote remains possible.

Netanyahu may see a repeat election as favorable. Arab turnout could fall if voters conclude that Jewish opposition parties will not let their representatives join a government. Liberal Israelis who came from overseas to vote may not return for another ballot.

A fourth path requires defectors. Netanyahu would need roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc. Eisenkot would need about 13 if he continues to exclude Arab parties, a scenario that appears unlikely now. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, said Netanyahu has reason to push for renewed fighting while coalition talks continue. "Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war," Citrinowicz said. Eisenkot joined Netanyahu's emergency government after the Oct. 7, 2023 attack and resigned eight months later, saying Netanyahu made decisions based on political considerations rather than national interests.