Tovar-Ospina finds flood risk models miss lived experience in Miami-Dade

Nilver Tovar-Ospina identified a sharp disconnect between official flood-risk models and the actual experiences of residents in Miami-Dade County. His research, completed as part of his doctoral studies at the University of Central Florida, reveals that conventional data often fails to capture the uneven distribution of flood vulnerability in the region.

Tovar-Ospina became the first graduate of UCF’s integrative anthropological sciences doctoral program in Summer 2026. He holds a concentration in environmental anthropology. His dissertation, titled Architectures of Flooding: History, Power, and the Production of Flood Risk in Miami-Dade County, treats flooding not just as a natural hazard but as a condition shaped by history, infrastructure, and funding decisions.

His work highlights a clear economic divide in flood protection. High-income, tourist-focused areas in South Florida have received substantial infrastructure investments, including sea walls and improved drainage systems. In contrast, historically lower-income communities continue to face recurrent flooding. In some neighborhoods, these flood events have persisted for decades, with residents still recovering from hurricanes in recent years.

Tovar-Ospina combined ethnography, interviews, participant observation, and historical research with geographic information systems, or GIS. This mixed-methods approach allowed him to compare community knowledge with official risk assessments. He found that some areas labeled as highly exposed by standard models reported relatively limited experiences with recurrent flooding due to physical barriers.

Conversely, areas farther inland and with lower income levels experienced frequent flooding that did not always align with their modeled risk levels. Residents used participatory mapping to identify specific locations of recurring water problems. These maps revealed drainage issues, mobility disruptions, and household impacts that standard assessments frequently overlooked.

The research points to a reliance on short-term fixes in vulnerable neighborhoods. Tovar-Ospina noted that residents in low-income communities were often offered palliative solutions such as sandbags and bottled water. These temporary measures contrasted with the residents' calls for long-term adaptation strategies and permanent infrastructure improvements.

Tovar-Ospina’s findings were recognized with several academic awards in 2026. He received the Judges’ Choice Award at UCF’s Student Scholar Symposium. He also won the Best Paper Presentation Award at the International Conference on Environmental Anthropology and Sustainability in Paris. His peer-reviewed article, Tangible and Intangible Impacts of Flooding in Miami-Dade County: A Human-Centered Analysis, was published in the journal Human Ecology.

He was selected as one of nine international participants for the 2025 Climate Politics and Autocratization Conference at the University of Bergen in Norway. Additionally, he received the 2026 Laura Bassi Scholarship to support his book manuscript, Architectures of Flooding: Unequal Ground in a Drowning County.

Tovar-Ospina stated that including communities in climate-related policy discussions is essential for developing equitable risk assessments. He argued that environmental anthropologists need to be part of the conversation to ensure the knowledge of impacted communities informs how coastal challenges are addressed. His work aims to direct greater attention and resources to the areas most affected by flood disparities.

Tovar-Ospina began his career working for an environmental studies company in Neiva, Colombia. He later joined UCF’s Global Intensive English Program before entering the doctoral program. He connected his anthropological research with broader interdisciplinary conversations on coastal vulnerability through UCF Coastal, one of the university’s Faculty Cluster Initiatives.