Democrats hold 8-point lead on generic ballot, Marist poll finds

Democrats lead by 8 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. The advantage puts the party in position to gain control of the U.S. House.

President Trump's approval rating stands at 40%, a slight improvement from earlier readings, the poll found. NPR's Domenico Montanaro told Up First that while the House appears unlikely to flip back to Republicans, the Senate remains a toss-up.

Financial pressure shapes the electorate. One in three Americans report facing financial hardship, and four in 10 say their personal finances are worsening. Preserving democracy ranks as a top concern among Democrats and independents, while immigration leads the issue list for MAGA supporters.

Vote counting may run past election night. Montanaro said patience will be required because winners in many races are unlikely to be clear on election night, which he called expected for close contests.

In related developments, a federal judge hears arguments today on the Trump administration's effort to compel California to set aside ballots from voters it alleges may not be citizens. An appeals court declined the administration's request to intervene last night. Trump announced yesterday a $1 million reward for tips on voter fraud that lead to a conviction. The White House says its efforts aim to secure elections.

Prediction markets face scrutiny ahead of voting. Polymarket has investigated "dozens" of bets on its prediction markets concerning the midterm elections, according to Shana Bautista, the company's head of global intelligence and investigations. Elections are a week away.

Israelis vote today in a parliamentary election, the first chance to choose leaders since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's far-right, longest-serving prime minister, faces Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who has campaigned on more diplomacy and less extremism.

NPR's Ruth Sherlock said high turnout is expected and Israelis abroad have flown in to vote. At a polling station, Sherlock met Itamar Ariel, who believes only Netanyahu can ensure Israel's security. Others want Netanyahu voted out over security failures and seek an investigation into how the Oct. 7 attacks happened, which Netanyahu has blocked. Results on which side wins the most seats in Parliament should be visible Wednesday morning, though vote counting could continue for days, and the prime minister won't be determined until after days or possibly weeks of negotiations between the parties.