Poll Shows Democrats Favored in House Races, but Warning Signs Could Limit a Wave

Democrats remain the favorites to win control of the U.S. House in the midterm elections, but a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll points to reasons their gains could be smaller than a full wave. The survey of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20. The margin of error is 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters.

The cost of living is the top concern overall. A third of respondents said they had experienced financial hardship in the past year, and 38% said their personal finances had worsened, while 44% said they were about the same. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who leans Democratic, said food and gas prices are "too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for." Preserving democracy resonates with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the biggest worry for self-described MAGA supporters.

Only 38% of registered voters approve of President Trump's job performance, and 61% disapprove. Among likely voters, a group Marist screened for the first time this cycle, the split was 40% to 59%. Fifty-three percent of both groups said they strongly disapprove, tying last month's record high for the poll. Just 37% of likely voters view Trump favorably.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead by 10 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters. Similar leads have historically meant big results: the average was 7 points in 2018 and 12 points in 2006, and Democrats flipped at least 30 House seats in both years. But redistricting after the 2020 Census, along with a rare mid-decade round prompted by Trump's request that Republican states redraw their maps, has tilted seats toward Republicans. Democrats followed suit in some places, though the net effect still favors Republicans.

Democrats appear nervous. While 98% of Democratic likely voters plan to vote for a Democrat, only 81% expect their party to win. Republicans were 10 points less likely to believe their candidate would prevail. A desire for change also helps Democrats, with 55% of likely voters saying new ideas matter more. Likely voters were also twice as likely to call their vote one against Trump (44%) as one for him (21%).

Trump's unpopularity does not automatically become Democratic votes. Matthew Schroder, a 38-year-old independent in Charlotte, N.C., who backed Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, said he opposes what he sees as a growing embrace of democratic socialism on the left. He plans to vote for Republican Michael Whatley over Democrat Roy Cooper in the Senate race.

Democratic likely voters are more likely to be very enthusiastic about voting, 71% to 61%. Yet only 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters and 56% of white women with college degrees said they are very enthusiastic, even though all disapprove of Trump. MAGA voters (68%), white women without degrees (66%) and white evangelicals (61%) are more energized. Republicans have also caught up on following the election very closely, with 46% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans doing so.

Three-quarters of likely voters are confident their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election, but Republicans were 20 points less confident than Democrats. About a quarter of Republicans said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results.

On other issues, 6 in 10 said new data centers will mostly harm the country, and 66% oppose one in their community. Sixty-one percent said immigrants should have a legal path to stay if they meet certain requirements. The public is split on guns, with 48% prioritizing stricter laws and 46% prioritizing gun rights, and 57% said government is almost always wasteful and inefficient.