Israel Votes in Election Seen as Pivotal After Years of War

Israelis are voting on Tuesday in an election that many describe as the most consequential in the country's history, following several years of war. Polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu behind his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, but a clear winner may not emerge for weeks or even months.

The delay is built into the system. Voters do not pick between the two men directly. They choose among roughly a dozen main parties competing for seats in the 120-member Knesset, and the decisive phase begins afterward, when party leaders try to assemble a coalition of at least 61 lawmakers.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is seeking another term. His government has been the most right-wing in the country's history, with far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and two ultra-Orthodox parties as partners. He has led Israel through more than three years of war and regional conflict, beginning with the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. His campaign stresses military achievements, his close ties to President Trump, who recently endorsed him, and confronting Iran.

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israeli military, is running for prime minister for the first time as head of a new center-right party called Yashar, meaning "Straight" or "Upright." His son Gal, a soldier, was killed in Gaza during the war. Recent polls give him the best chance of unseating Netanyahu, though no party or bloc appears sure to win a majority. He has pledged not to join a government led by Netanyahu.

Arab parties could shape the outcome. Two predominantly Arab parties are running, including Ra'am, which in 2021 became the first Arab Islamist party to join an Israeli governing coalition. Arab citizens make up about 20 percent of the population. Nearly all major predominantly Jewish parties, Eisenkot's included, are reluctant to depend on Arab parties, which could leave the anti-Netanyahu camp short of 61 seats.

Several issues dominate the campaign. About 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage on Oct. 7, and Netanyahu has resisted calls for a state commission of inquiry, which Eisenkot and other opposition leaders say they would create soon after taking office. A long-running dispute over military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men has intensified as the army says it needs more personnel; Netanyahu, who relies on ultra-Orthodox parties, has resisted drafting them, while Eisenkot wants wider service. Netanyahu's far-right partners also want to limit the power of the courts, while Eisenkot backs an independent and powerful judiciary. Netanyahu remains on trial for corruption and says the charges are politically motivated.

Israel's international standing is another concern. The wars and policies in the occupied West Bank have strained relations with many governments, and U.S. public support for Israel has dropped sharply. Netanyahu argues that military strength has improved Israel's strategic position, while Eisenkot and his allies warn that isolation threatens the economy, diplomacy and security.

A party need not finish first for its leader to become prime minister; what counts is assembling a majority coalition. Recent polls suggest neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to one. Possible outcomes include an opposition minority government backed by Arab parties, a broad unity government that Eisenkot has publicly ruled out under Netanyahu, a plea deal in which Netanyahu would step down and serve under Eisenkot, or a deadlock that leaves Netanyahu as caretaker and leads to a repeat election next year.

Even without a coalition, an anti-Netanyahu majority could try to elect a new Knesset speaker, set up an inquiry into Oct. 7 and advance legislation on ultra-Orthodox military service. Likud billboards are already promoting a scenario in which the party could claim the election was stolen, a move that could bring chaos after the vote.

Neither leader currently supports a Palestinian state in the foreseeable future. Their sharpest differences involve democratic institutions, the West Bank and Israel's place in the world. Eisenkot takes a tougher line on settler violence, says he would act against outposts illegal even under Israeli law, and opposes settlement construction in the sensitive E1 area east of Jerusalem.