Bernalillo schools face enrollment drop as ICE arrests rise

Public school enrollment in Bernalillo County has declined for two consecutive years. The drop in student numbers is accelerating as federal immigration enforcement intensifies. Local educators say the combined effect of lower birth rates and recent ICE activity is shrinking the student population.

The trend mirrors data from larger districts across the country. Los Angeles Unified School District lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades. Kelly Gonez, a board member in that district, noted that birth rates in Los Angeles County have fallen for decades. She said the district predicted a 2% drop in enrollment this year. The actual decline was double that amount.

Nationwide, the number of children under age 18 dropped by roughly 2.1 million from 2010 to 2025. U.S. Department of Education data shows public school enrollment peaked in 2019. By the 2024 school year, that number had fallen by 1.5 million students. Federal researchers project another 2 million students will leave public schools by 2030. That represents a 7% national decline over a decade.

The Migration Policy Institute found that as many as 1.9 million people left the United States during the first 18 months of the current administration. Federal officials recently weakened restrictions that previously limited ICE operations near public schools. In Bernalillo County, teachers report that families are staying home more often. Some students are missing class due to family detentions or relocations.

Guadalupe Cardona, a teacher at Santee Education Complex in South Los Angeles, described the impact on her classrooms. She said more than 200 students did not show up on the first day of school this year. Many of those families were no longer living at their registered addresses. The school also lost two teachers at the start of the academic year.

Thomas Dee, an economist at Stanford University who studies education policy, said this is the first time in nearly a century that low birth rates and low immigration levels coincide. He noted that stopping immigration exacerbates the problem of demographic decline. Communities are now facing difficult decisions about closing schools.

A June report from the education think tanks Bellwether and WestEd warned that enrollment declines are reshaping districts in 40 states. The study identified the sustained drop in birth rates as the primary driver. A national slowdown in immigration is the second factor. The report predicted a loss of $11 billion in public school funding annually due to falling enrollment.

In California, state officials released a study in August predicting the state could lose another 710,000 students over the next decade. If current trends in fertility and migration continue, Bernalillo County districts may face similar pressures. The Los Angeles district is currently identifying buildings and campuses that may close. Gonez said it is hard to find a sustainable path to keep campuses open when the student population is roughly half its size from 20 years ago.